Indian Ocean Dipole & Effects on Monsoon

Santhosh Kumar 30/06/2023
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Indian Ocean Dipole upsc notes Context IMD predicts normal monsoon El Nino event possibility Monsoon and El Nino Monsoon Seasonal wind reversal Brings heavy rainfall Affects 25 countries Covers 18000 km east to west Covers 6000 km south to north El Nino Climate pattern Warmer-than-average sea temperatures In central and eastern Pacific Ocean Has global weather impacts Factors Impacting Monsoon Rains El Nino/La Nina El Nino weakens monsoons La Nina enhances monsoons Dateline El Nino/Central Pacific El Nino Negative impact on monsoon 2005 El Nino an exception Atlantic Nino East-west anomaly pattern Influences the monsoon Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Positive IOD enhances monsoon Negative IOD weakens monsoon Sea Surface Temperatures Warmer enhances monsoon Cooler weakens monsoon Atmospheric Pressure Change affects circulation and rainfall Land-Sea Temperature Contrast Greater contrast influences monsoon strength Himalayan Mountain Range Influences winds and rainfall patterns Topography Shapes local wind patterns Affects rainfall distribution Tropical Cyclones Influence monsoon rainfall Global Climate Patterns Madden-Julian Oscillation affects monsoon dynamics Local Factors Vegetation, soil moisture, land use Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Climate phenomenon Sea surface temperature fluctuation Atmospheric pressure fluctuation Similar to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Effects of IOD on Monsoon Positive IOD Enhances monsoon rainfall 1997: Offset El Nino, above-normal rainfall Negative IOD Weakens monsoon rainfall 2019: Contributed to deficient rainfall Neutral IOD Minimal impact on monsoon Monsoon Forecast Conditions (ESSO & IMD) North Atlantic and North Pacific SST gradient Equatorial south Indian Ocean SST East Asia Mean Sea Level pressure Northwest Europe surface air temperature Equatorial Pacific Ocean warm water volume Limitations in Forecasting IOD and Atlantic Nino Forecasting models lack reliability Specific role in monsoon patterns uncertain El Nino Challenges in predicting location and intensity

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