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ICRA Forecasts Sequential Moderation in India’s GDP Growth to 7% in Q2 FY2024

Santhosh Kumar 23/11/2023

ICRA Forecasts Sequential Moderation in India’s GDP Growth to 7% in Q2 FY2024 mind map
Gross Value Added (GVA) Growth Estimates
GVA growth anticipated to ease to 6.8%
Services sector and agriculture contributing to deceleration
Factors Impacting Future Growth
Uneven rainfall
Narrowing commodity price differentials
Potential slowdown in government capex
Weak external demand
Cumulative impact of monetary tightening
Full-Year GDP Growth Estimate and Investment Activity
Full-year GDP growth estimate maintained at 6.0%
Robust investment activity in Q2 FY2024
Industrial GVA Growth and Sectoral Performance
Industrial GVA growth estimated at 6.6%
Driven by manufacturing, electricity, and mining
Services and Agriculture GVA Growth Expectations
Services GVA growth projected at 8.2%
Agriculture growth estimated at 1.0%
Forward-Looking Concerns and Conclusion
Concerns about uneven rainfall, commodity prices
Low confidence in Net Zero targets among G20 members
Urgent need for clean energy access

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NSO Revises India's GDP Growth Estimates mind map Recent News NSO's First Advance Estimates for FY 2023-24 Real GDP growth estimated at 7.3% Compared to 7.2% in 2022-23 Nominal GDP growth at 8.9% Down from 16.1% in 2022-23 Economic sectors performance Construction sector growth at 10.7% Agriculture and Allied sector growth at 1.8% Other sectors with over 6% growth When Posted on 05 Jan 2024 Why Reflect changes in economic performance and projections What Real GDP at Constant Prices FY 2023-24: ₹171.79 lakh crore FY 2022-23: ₹160.06 lakh crore Nominal GDP at Current Prices FY 2023-24: ₹296.58 lakh crore FY 2022-23: ₹272.41 lakh crore Sector-wise growth Manufacturing sector growth at 6.5% Mining sector growth at 8.1% Financial services, real estate, professional services at 8.9% Where India Who National Statistical Office (NSO) Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Adjusted growth forecast to 7% from 6.5% How Methodology Indicator-based compilation using benchmark-indicator method Inputs from various Ministries/Departments/Private Agencies Estimates extrapolated using relevant performance indicators Significance Positions India at forefront of major global economies Reflects strong economic growth despite global uncertainties Supports government's infrastructure and manufacturing initiatives Challenges Agriculture sector's modest growth at 1.8% Way Forward Future revisions based on improved data coverage and actual tax collections

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Categories: Economic Growth & Development

Tags: 23.11.2023, Newsbits

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