2025 Asiatic Lion Census: Why Rising Numbers Don’t Guarantee Long-Term Survival

The 2025 Asiatic Lion Census in Gujarat recorded an encouraging 32.2% rise in population, taking the count from 674 in 2020 to 891 lions. This growth, while commendable, raises critical concerns about sustainability, habitat pressure, and the ecological balance needed for the long-term survival of the species. Despite increased visibility in multiple districts and emerging satellite populations, conservation experts stress that lion numbers alone cannot secure the species’ future. Instead, deeper, more sustainable strategies are required to mitigate risks such as habitat fragmentation, human-wildlife conflict, and disease vulnerability. This article explores all facets of the lion conservation journey in Gujarat, offering an in-depth perspective on one of India’s greatest wildlife recovery stories.

What Is The Asiatic Lion Census All About?

• The Asiatic Lion Census, conducted every five years, is a large-scale exercise by the Gujarat Forest Department to estimate the lion population across the state, primarily in the Gir region.
• The 2025 census recorded 891 lions, a 32.2% rise from the 2020 count of 674.
• It covered 35,000 sq km across 11 districts including Junagadh, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Rajkot, Porbandar, and Gir Somnath.
• The methodology included Direct Beat Verification, dividing regions into zones and sub-zones, with over 3,000 participants, including forest officials and volunteers.
• High-tech tools such as camera traps, GPS collars, and GIS mapping were used for data collection and analysis.
• The census revealed 384 lions in forested areas and 507 in non-forested zones, highlighting the lions’ expanded range and adaptive behavior.

Why Lion Numbers Alone Aren’t Enough?

• Although the population has surged, experts argue this growth does not align proportionately with habitat expansion, causing density dilution and dispersal into risky areas.
• Only 56% of lions are now found in protected forest areas. Others inhabit farmlands, wastelands, and near-human zones, increasing chances of conflict.
• Many lions rely on livestock carcasses and are exposed to diseases spread by stray dogs.
• The growth in numbers, though promising, is not scientifically adjusted with standard error margins, raising methodological concerns.
• Lions in non-forested zones face dangers like electrocution, open wells, and retaliatory killings.
• Human tolerance has its limits. Increasing incidents of unprovoked lion attacks are being reported due to lions’ growing comfort around humans.

Where Are The Lions Spreading To?

• The lion range has expanded from 6,600 sq km in 1990 to 35,000 sq km in 2025 — a growth of 430%.
• The core population remains in Gir National Park, Pania, and Mitiyala sanctuaries, but satellite populations have emerged in:
  • Barda Wildlife Sanctuary (17 lions)
  • Jetpur and Babra-Jasdan
  • Southwestern and Southeastern coastal belts
  • Bhavnagar and Amreli districts
• The Amreli district now houses the highest number with 339 lions, becoming a major non-forested hub for lion habitation.
• These lions are increasingly visible in corridor areas, small patches of greenery amidst agriculture or urban sprawl, which lack ecological safeguards.

When Did Lion Conservation Begin And Evolve?

• The first lion census was held in 1936 by the Nawab of Junagadh.
• After the Gir forest was declared a sanctuary in 1965, regular censuses began, and state-backed protection intensified.
• From under 200 lions in the 1960s, conservation efforts led to slow but steady growth:
  • By 1995: 300 lions
  • 2005: 359 lions after doubling the range
  • 2020: 674 lions with an expanded range of 30,000 sq km
  • 2025: 891 lions with a 35,000 sq km range
• Project Lion, launched in 2020 by PM Narendra Modi, marked a watershed in conservation with ₹2,900 crore allocated for habitat improvement and relocation plans.
• Despite the Supreme Court’s 2013 directive to shift some lions to Madhya Pradesh’s Kuno National Park, no relocation has occurred due to political and ecological debates.

Who Is Involved In Lion Conservation Efforts?

• The Gujarat Forest Department leads census and habitat management with support from:
  • State and National Wildlife Boards
  • Non-governmental organizations
  • Wildlife biologists and ecologists like Dr Ravi Chellam
  • Local pastoral communities, notably the Maldharis, who coexist with lions in Gir
• 3,854 individuals participated in the 2025 census, including village sarpanches, volunteers, and wildlife experts.
• Community initiatives like Vanya Prani Mitra and eco-development committees are helping in conflict mitigation and awareness.
• The central government, via Project Lion and allied wildlife laws, also plays a key funding and policy role.

How Is The Lion Population Being Monitored And Protected?

• Census and conservation strategies use advanced technologies:
  • GPS tracking and radio collars
  • Camera traps and high-resolution imagery
  • e-GujForest app for real-time data entry and tracking
  • GIS software for mapping movement, habitats, and threats
• Direct Beat Verification ensures minimal error through in-person tracking and documentation.
• Health care infrastructure includes rapid rescue operations, medical support, and controlled feeding zones.
• Anti-poaching units, patrolling, and compensation for livestock loss have strengthened protection efforts.

What Is The Significance Of The Population Growth?

• The 32.2% population growth over five years showcases the effectiveness of Gujarat’s conservation model in reversing historical population declines.
• From being on the brink of extinction in the 1960s, Asiatic lions are now classified as “Vulnerable” instead of “Critically Endangered” by the IUCN since 2008.
• The rise of adult females by 27% (from 260 to 330) indicates a strong reproductive base, essential for future population stability.
• The emergence of nine satellite populations marks an ecological success, showing lions’ adaptive behavior in fragmented landscapes.
• These efforts demonstrate how community cooperation, modern technology, and government commitment can lead to measurable wildlife conservation outcomes.
• Gujarat’s model is often highlighted internationally for its community-based conservation, blending traditional tolerance with scientific management.
• The census offers crucial inputs for the IUCN’s Green Status Assessment, measuring recovery progress and needed conservation actions beyond just extinction risk.

What Are The Limitations Of The Current Conservation Approach?

• High population growth in limited forested areas has exceeded carrying capacities in Gir and surrounding sanctuaries.
• The expansion into non-protected areas poses ecological challenges:
  • Lower prey density
  • Greater exposure to human-induced threats
  • Higher vulnerability to diseases like Canine Distemper Virus (CDV)
• Lack of genetic diversity is a major concern since all lions descend from a single population, making them susceptible to epidemics and inbreeding.
• The absence of relocation to other states, especially after the Supreme Court’s 2013 order, continues to centralize the population and risk.
• Despite being a five-year exercise, the census provides absolute numbers without error margins, which is unusual in scientific estimations and may mask statistical uncertainty.
• Dependence on livestock carcasses rather than hunting wild prey risks disrupting natural behaviors and increases zoonotic disease exposure.
• Public tolerance, though high, is under pressure as lions increasingly interact with humans, sometimes resulting in fatalities or livestock damage.

What Are The Challenges In Sustaining The Conservation Success?

• Human-wildlife conflict is rising due to increased lion sightings in agricultural fields, wastelands, and near villages:
  • Attacks on humans and livestock
  • Retaliatory killings, often disguised as accidents (electrocution, poisoning, drowning)
• Urbanisation, infrastructure projects, and road networks are fragmenting habitats and interrupting lion corridors.
• The Gujarat government’s resistance to shifting lions to Kuno or other reserves outside Gujarat limits the creation of a second viable population.
• Ecological challenges include:
  • Maintaining prey base outside protected areas
  • Managing lion-lion conflict due to territorial pressures
  • Ensuring disease surveillance and quarantine mechanisms
• The Barda Wildlife Sanctuary, despite being a new habitat, spans less than 200 sq km and can hold only a few lions, insufficient to de-risk the species.
• The climate crisis and extreme weather events pose an unpredictable threat to both prey and predator, especially in coastal and arid zones.

What Can Be The Way Forward For Long-Term Conservation?

• Establish new, well-connected habitats both within and outside Gujarat to diversify and decentralize lion populations.
• Implement the Supreme Court’s relocation mandate in spirit and action, by shifting some lions to Kuno National Park and other prepared sites.
• Focus on habitat quality over habitat area:
  • Restore degraded forests
  • Improve wild prey base
  • Minimize livestock dependency
• Encourage scientific research on genetics, disease risks, and social carrying capacities to inform future decisions.
• Invest in landscape-level conservation models that include buffer zones, eco-sensitive areas, and wildlife corridors.
• Strengthen community partnerships through:
  • Compensation schemes
  • Eco-tourism opportunities
  • Conservation-linked livelihoods
• Enhance national collaboration by involving the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change in broader policy and funding coordination.
• Use real-time data analytics, drone surveillance, and AI-enabled tools for proactive monitoring and emergency responses.

Conclusion
The 2025 Lion Census marks a major milestone in India’s wildlife conservation story, with Gujarat showcasing impressive leadership. However, population growth is only the beginning. For the Asiatic lion to truly thrive, conservation must evolve from counting heads to crafting ecosystems. Strategic relocation, diversified habitats, robust community engagement, and scientific rigor must guide future policies. By transforming ecological pressures into conservation opportunities, India can secure a stable and thriving future for its most iconic predator.

Practice Question: Why is habitat quality more critical than population growth in the case of Asiatic lions? (250 words)